They say everyone has a blind spot—whether it’s a person they love or a habit that feels a whole lot more productive than it is…sometimes the mind creates a gap between the illusion and reality. A delusion is simply false, an inaccuracy, but an illusion could be true and is driven by belief, or by misplaced hope.
The best example of this in sports is a fanbase’s fixation and more importantly, a misplaced optimism when evaluating their own young core. There has and always will be a special place in the heart of hardcore fans for homegrown talent—and it is understandable how the birth of a star in a person’s hometown can be valued more than those inorganically acquired.
While having a fanbase attached to its players in their early 20s is likely good for the sport and for the franchise, when this misplaced optimism bleeds into the front office and ownership, lapses in judgment become more and more frequent.
While driving in India and Indonesia on a motorbike, I’ve seen it’s not speed that kills a driver but indecision. Hesitation at the wheel can be fatal…and the same can be said for clenching one’s grip too tightly around potential that is more an illusion than a likelihood to ever occur.
Just ask New York if the in-house projection of Quentin Grimes was the cost too high to pay for perennial All-Star Donovan Mitchell. Though the Knicks have been a picture-perfect depiction of a poorly run franchise, every team has its own Quentin Grimes and often a collection of semi-untouchables based largely on misplaced hope.
Golden State’s Young Core
There is a misconception that has been attached to last year’s title run in that the Warriors won a championship with their veteran talent while simultaneously developing their young recently drafted project pieces. Though we saw flashes of why one should be excited about Kuminga or Moody, neither was ever fed a stable diet of minutes throughout the regular season.
Their presence in the rotation was a bonus, something seen as a luxury and an embarrassment of riches of a dynasty now locked and loaded with blue-chip assets at the back end of the bench fermenting for a future in the ashes of one dynasty only to be resurrected in a second coming of size and athleticism.
More accurately, this would be the first season where this dance between vets and the young is no such luxury but instead a necessity for the Dubs’ depth. To start the season, meaningful minutes were being given and possibly in Kerr’s eyes, sacrificed, for the growth and development of Golden State’s future weapons in a post-Curry era.
Ironically if Kerr had cut out a small piece of the pie for Kuminga and Moody last regular season they probably wouldn’t look like 2nd-year rooks, but as the mantra goes in the NBA: Winning a Championship means never having to say you’re sorry.
With third-year rookie James Wiseman just being sent down to the G League, there are concerns about selling low on the Bay Area stock of young talent. However, we should be cautious not to confuse the analogy of stocks and assets with the reality of constructing a roster, especially when working within the frameworks of a title window so clearly defined by a generational talent in the tail end of his prime.
Often, you’ll hear small-time investors say never sell low, hold onto stock even when it hurts, they all float up to the surface eventually if you’re patient and willing. Whether that’s true or not is irrelevant in this scenario, because it assumes that maximizing the value of the asset should be an organization's priority.
So, to be specific, either A.) trading high on the young core, or B.) fermenting them into All-Stars or better yet an All-NBA selection, would be viewed as a win. In this equation, it assumes that if Golden State were to trade Wiseman or Kuminga and 3 or 4 years down the road one of them made an All-Star team, the trade would be identified as a loss. If one is dedicated to this analogy of maximizing assets it could be identified as such, yet it ignores the rarity of Golden State's primary weapon in Stephen Curry.
In a similar way bottom feeding teams benefit exponentially by trading away their players for assets and in return allowing themselves to tank their way into the lottery—additional ammunition for a true contender may be the thing that swings a series and the dominoes of history. True contenders for the title simply have a different set of values. Their priority is to maximize the window because by definition a title window can seal itself shut quickly and without notice.
Rosters are fragile. Sometimes a single piece of the puzzle gets pulled out or returns from an injury with just a sliver of burst missing and the piece no longer fits, and the entire house of cards collapses into itself. In the offseason, GPII and Otto Porter Jr. were the highlighted losses in free agency (and rightfully so), yet no one predicted it was the loss of a vet-minimum out-of-shape yet competent backup big in Bjelica who has discombobulated the rotation.
In a theoretical series against the Suns in the upcoming postseason, Golden States’ recent lottery selections of Wise, Moody, and Kuminga, likely would play little to no role in its outcome. Kerr simply does not trust his young players with precious playoff minutes and has proven he will only utilize their combination of athleticism and lack of experience in a break in case of emergency scenario. To Kerr’s credit, from what we’ve seen from them thus far in the tiny sample size of opportunities this season, they are not ready to play the brand of basketball that Golden State utilizes on the defensive end.
They have shown high levels of potential and likely will become starting-caliber players down the road—for Kuminga, possibly even an All-NBA selection in his prime. However, regardless of the possibilities of its potency, this is all theoretical potential energy—contenders' values need to prioritize the kinetic energy at their disposal.
A fixation on asset accumulation or maximizing the value of assets is a game to be played by franchises that aren’t currently concerned with playing the actual game of basketball. A contender instead, should be fixated on finding an edge. If it has bullets to fire for upgrading a roster, the question shouldn’t be centered on maximizing value or concerns of a loss on a lottery pick, but if that transaction transforms their contending roster into title favorites.
It’s the Milwaukee Bucks model with their acquisition of Jrue Holiday. At the time, some believed the number of picks and pieces was too much for Jrue, and maybe they were, relative to the considered asset value at the time of the trade. But that didn’t matter to Milwaukee. What mattered was maximizing Giannis’ prime. What mattered was the edge this upgrade created by a team that prior to the trade simply didn’t have the weapons needed to win a championship.
The Golden State Warriors currently are not the favorites to win the 2023 Finals. Both of those teams reside in the East. How can the front office justify hoarding assets while Curry might be playing the best basketball of his long and decorated career, and yet they don’t appear to have the strongest roster in the Western Conference?
I too felt prior to the season the current construction of the roster was stacked, yet I also assumed they’d use their 14th or 15th roster slot on a backup veteran big. Now that option is still available, but it isn’t the route that maximizes the Curry window to best situate the Dubs to win additional titles for the Bay Area dynasty. This is how.
You Gotta Give Some to Get Some
Wiseman has been sent down to the G League which can be translated into: the Dubs believes Wiseman is currently unplayable and minutes given to developing him are so detrimental to team success that they need to be logged in Santa Cruz. As a third-year player making nearly 10 million annually, he only has value to a team with patience, time, and the belief that he will one day be a high-level talent—otherwise, he is more of a salary filler in a trade. Currently to many franchises, he is viewed as the latter.
Moody on paper has potential as a multi-positional defender who can stretch the floor and finish through contact at the rim. However, if any of that were currently true and not simply a hopeful projection, one would assume Kerr would’ve solidified his minutes into the rotation. But he hasn’t. To many Warriors fans, Moody is our equivalent to New York’s Quinten Grimes. His internal evaluation and external value to the rest of the league likely do not match. Project pieces are interesting when dealing with high upside, not with possible future role players. It’s not to say he doesn’t have value in a trade, because he certainly does, but in no way shape or form is he a blue-chip asset.
Kuminga on the other hand is a diamond in the rough and everyone around the league knows it. Whether he can be polished into the gem he was born to become is still an unknown, yet any rebuilding franchise would love to roll the dice on Kuminga’s future. Without the inclusion of JK, there are no big upgrades available because of where Wiseman and Moody’s stock currently stands.
Trade Proposal
It’s the polarizing package that is disliked by both fanbases at first glance. For Golden State faithful it looks like way too much for 3-non-All-Stars and for Utah fanatics, it's 3 proven young players for a bag full of question marks, but there’s a logic underneath the madness.
Utah
For Danny Ainge, this deal nearly completes one of the greatest rebuild starter packs in the history of the NBA. While Utah was cruising in the 1-seed a trade of this magnitude may have not been impossible, but lucky for Trader Danny, the Jazz have started to leak oil. This would bring the total of the D-Mitch + Gobert trades to 9 additional unprotected first, most of which are years down the road, alongside a stack of potential on rookie contracts, including 3 recent lottery selections.
After dealing Conley, Clarkson, and Beasley, for another few first-rounders, the exchange brings in its biggest asset in the form of a top 5 selection in the upcoming draft by tanking themselves down to the bottom of the Western Conference. They also would likely be first in line for the two coveted Lakers picks that could be shopped at the deadline.
Wiggins 2.0
For those who haven’t watched much of the Cinderella story from Salt Lake City, check out my previous article on the Jazz Juxtaposition. In it, I specifically prescribe for Utah to keep these 3 players and trade the rest of the vets around them for a soft rebuild…that is unless they were presented with a godfather offer, one they simply can’t refuse.
If Lauri Markkanen had a projected ceiling of being the best player on a title team, he’d be untouchable. Maybe then Utah could turn down the opportunity for the perfect style rebuild, with an excess of draft equity and young recent lottery selections already on the roster to develop.
So, if he isn’t the tier 1 star that the Warriors are often linked to in trade rumors what is he? He’s a 25-year-old 7-foot forward who is scoring 20+ efficient points primarily off-ball. However, he can also create his own shot and is 3-level scorer who the Jazz have constantly leaned on down the stretch of games. His efficiency from distance has been down, yet this is mostly due to poor shot selection. Likely, he will get more wide-open 3-point attempts than he ever has in his career playing next to Curry. Originally drafted as a stretch big and potential as a sniper, two years prior he averaged over 40% from distance in Chicago.
If not for such a surplus of talent currently in the NBA, Lauri Markkanen would be a lock for this year’s All-Star selection. He’s averaging 21 points, and 8 and a half rebounds, shooting 52% from the floor and 83% from the line. On offense, he can play the 3, 4, or 5, and defensively he has proven this season to have bought into being a high-intensity effort player and is no longer seen as the minus defender he was in Chicago. He also provides rim protection and is averaging a block a game.
Those fixated on the future simply need to recalibrate how many years down the road Curry’s prime will extend. Considering Draymond’s future is up in the air and Klay’s production is still in question, the starting and closing lineup for next season of Curry, Poole, Wiggins, Markkanen, and Looney is arguably better than the Dubs' current starting lineup, especially considering the internal growth of the 4 players in their 20s orbiting around Steph.
The acquisition of Markkanen could be an inverted 2.0 version of the Andrew Wiggins trade. Yes, the package necessary to pry him out of Utah is steep, but as a contender, the ability to add an All-Star-level talent in his mid-20s on a team-friendly deal should be weighted in gold. It is a huge addition without the need to subtract any of the Warriors' current on-court production. Any other big-time addition would not only need to include Kuminga but also Dray or Klay.
His partner in crime, Jarred Vanderbilt, might go down as the Timberwolves' biggest mistake as a throw-in player included in the Gobert trade. He is a multi-positional plus defender at only 23 years old who is still on his rookie deal at 4.3 million. A high motor, high energy hustle guy who simply makes lineups better with a defensive presence that is infectious. Though not a great scorer, he is an active cutter and can finish well at the basket along with a huge presence on the glass averaging over 8 boards a game. His defensive infusion in the Warriors’ 2nd unit would be an exceptional add and, in the future, would be another likely candidate who could replace Draymond at the 4/5.
Walker Kessler is the least sexy piece included in the exchange but has played solid backup minutes for Utah on both ends of the floor. He’s a traditional 7-footer and has those built-in limitations, but he is a good rim protector and a strong rebounder. He’s averaging 1.6 blocks, 5.4 rebounds, and 5.6 points in only 15 minutes per game. At only 21 years old and locked in long-term on a deal under 3 million annually, he is a perfect 3rd big on the bench who can soak up minutes in the regular season without wearing Looney and Draymond down. In this year's roster, he would be a luxury in the unfortunate case of an injury in the playoffs, since likely Kerr would utilize Vanderbilt and Markkanen for minutes at the 4/5 as they have shown to be successful in Utah.
Latent Value
The Golden State system requires high-IQ players to function, especially in the 2nd unit when Curry is off the floor. Winning an additional championship would only further tip the scale in the Warriors' favor for discount deals in free agency. Bjelica, Porter, JaMychal, and Donte were only possible because of the perception of who the Warriors currently are. These additions amplify who they are for the entirety of Curry’s prime.
For a team that will be over the cap for the foreseeable future, the value of this advantage cannot be understated. An advantage that likely will sustain throughout the Curry window, allows the front office to gamble on high-upside rotation players while mitigating the risks that come with developing rookies (especially costly lottery selections like the ones in question).
In addition, two open roster spots are created for Jerome and Lamb to further increase the depth of high IQ tools available throughout the regular season. Lamb has shown in a small sample to not only be a good defender but a floor spacer shooting over 40% from three.
Lastly, these are 3 additions that could soften the blow if Draymond decided to explore free agency. A 20+ a game fluid 7-foot forward, a plus multi-dimensional defender, and a young capable traditional 7-footer, all under contract next year for cheaper than Draymond’s 27-million-dollar player option.
Conclusion
The Chef drops 50 in the desert on 60% shooting only to get waxed by an undermanned Suns’ squad absent of CP3 and Cam Johnson. It’s the same in conference rival who has all their 1st rounders and a surplus of movable contracts to upgrade at the deadline. As a barometer for ranking title favorites to represent the West, the current metrics are bleak.
At 6 and 9 for the season and winless on the road, this wasted 50-piece acts as a microcosm of the current Golden State roster. Whether it’s an exchange with Utah or a Brooklyn blockbuster for Durant, the Warriors’ front office is sitting on a lottery ticket, too scared to cash it in because of some abstract pipe dream of titles in the post-Curry era. The Dubs currently have something few franchises have ever tasted, the phenomenon of being armed with the best player in basketball.
There is a fixation on the future, yet it’s likely Draymond’s impact as a tier-1 small-ball-5 is behind us. He simply can’t control the boards and the Dubs’ defense has been predicated not on Green’s presence but Looney’s. This trade with Utah solidifies the future for the entirety of Curry’s prime by arming him with multidimensional frontcourt weapons and the necessary offensive threats in Markkanen, Poole, and Wiggins to discourage the junk defenses opposing coaches scheme up for Curry in the playoffs.
An illusion has formed in minds of ownership, that the Warriors and the cash machine known as Chase Center could be immune to the fall that almost always accompanies the ashes of an empire. Yet if the fear of being a lottery team at the end of the decade is the reason for missing an opportunity to maximize the most impactful offensive engine of the modern era, it’s unlikely playoff appearances 6 years down the road will smooth over scars of missed title regrets.
Kumiga needs more playing time. And whenever there seems to be a golden opportunity to play Kuminga, in goes J Green, etc. Since Kerr doesnt seem to favor developing the young core, (but somehow expects them to get better without time on the court), I agree with the trade. I think its a sad trade because the fault, in my opinion, to Kumigas lack of development, lies mostly in Kerr. Never, never favors the young guns. But there is a Faustian bargain in that. I really dont understand Kerrs logic in allotting playing time. Kuminga and J Green are equalish, in my opinion, right now. But there is not further upside with Jamichael Green. Kuminga has very promising potential. Why in the logical world does it make sense to favor the player whos upside is limited, over the playing Kuminga and investing in a potential grand player. The logic scales make no sense. Trade Kuminga, (throw in Wiseman for a weekend BJ) and we're good. I believe Kuminga will flourish elsewhere. But as Ive said before, I'm not sure whether Luca would have played well and curried Kerr's favor in "Warrior basketball" either.
Sorry, there it is. No Draymond or Klay either!